Months of Inventory in Austin Real Estate, Explained

Ever wonder why one Zilker bungalow attracts multiple offers while a nearby condo sits for weeks? It often comes down to how much supply is on the market compared with recent sales. If you understand that balance, you can price, time, and negotiate with confidence. In this guide, you’ll learn what Months of Inventory means, how to calculate it for Zilker and 78704, and how to use it to make smarter moves as a buyer or seller. Let’s dive in.

What MOI means

Months of Inventory (MOI) estimates how long today’s active listings would take to sell at the current sales pace if no new homes were listed. It is a quick read on supply and demand.

• Formula: MOI = Active Listings ÷ Average Monthly Sales.
• Interpretation thresholds many pros use:
  • Under 3 months: stronger seller market
  • About 3 to 6 months: balanced to slightly seller-leaning
  • Over 6 months: buyer-leaning market

MOI is a snapshot. It works best when you also look at Days on Market and price trends.

Calculate MOI in Zilker

You can compute a neighborhood MOI in a few steps using ACTRIS/ABoR MLS data.

1. Define your area. Use Zilker boundaries or ZIP 78704. Note that 78704 covers multiple neighborhoods, so be clear about which you use.

2. Count active listings. Pull the number of MLS active listings on your snapshot date. Exclude pending and under-contract. Decide whether to include contingent or showings-only based on MLS practice.

3. Measure the sales pace. Use the number of closed sales in the prior 30 days, or a 3‑month average to smooth volatility. Closed sales reflect completed transactions, not just contracts.

4. Compute the math. MOI = Active ÷ Average Monthly Sales. Repeat by property type and price band because trends often differ.

5. Track over time. Maintain a simple spreadsheet with date, active count, closed sales, MOI, median DOM, and median price.

Illustrative examples to show the math:

• Scenario A: 24 actives and 12 closed in the past 30 days. MOI = 24 ÷ 12 = 2 months. That leans seller.
• Scenario B: 36 actives and 6 closed in the past 30 days. MOI = 36 ÷ 6 = 6 months. That leans buyer.

These are examples only. Always pull a current snapshot before you decide.

Read MOI as a buyer

Your offer strategy should match the market slice you are shopping in.

• Low MOI under 3 months: Prepare a clean offer with strong pre-approval. Consider shortening inspection periods and using escalation clauses where appropriate.
• Mid-range MOI near 3 to 6 months: You can negotiate on price or timing, but move quickly on well-prepped homes.
• Higher MOI over 6 months: You may have room to ask for concessions, seller credits, and more protective contingencies.

In Zilker, be sure to slice by property type and price band. Condos and upper price tiers often carry higher MOI than move-in-ready single-family homes.

Read MOI as a seller

Match your list strategy and timing to the current supply and demand.

• Low MOI under 3 months: You can price closer to market-leading comps, expect faster offers, and be more selective on terms. Your marketing window is shorter, so staging and photography should be ready fast.
• Mid-range MOI near 3 to 6 months: Price competitively to drive showings. Expect longer Days on Market and be responsive to feedback.
• Higher MOI over 6 months: Sharpen pricing and consider incentives or repairs to stand out. Prepare for more negotiation on terms.

If your home sits in a higher price band, expect your MOI to be higher than the neighborhood median. Plan accordingly.

Seasonality in 78704

Central Austin markets, including Zilker, show clear seasonality. Spring usually brings lower MOI as demand rises, while fall and winter often see higher MOI. Local events and employment shifts can add short-term noise. For example, major festivals in and around Zilker Park and the broader downtown calendar can temporarily affect showing activity and buyer focus.

A MOI of 4 in March is not the same as a MOI of 4 in December. Adjust your expectations by month.

Micro-markets by price and type

Zilker includes both single-family homes and condos, and the dynamics are not identical.

• Property type: Condos often show higher MOI than single-family homes in central Austin. If you are shopping or selling a condo, compare your numbers against condo-specific comps.
• Price band: Slice the market by tiers, such as under 700k, 700k to 1.25M, and above 1.25M. Luxury or upper tiers often carry more supply.
• Lot and build potential: Lot size, frontage, and condition can attract end users or builder interest, which changes demand within the same price band.
• Location factors: Proximity to Zilker Park, the Ben White corridor, or commercial nodes can create sub-markets with distinct MOI.

Get an accurate snapshot

For the most reliable neighborhood reading, use local sources and document your approach.

• Primary data: ACTRIS/ABoR MLS for active listings and closed sales. ABoR monthly reports offer Austin and Travis County context.
• Method: Capture a dated snapshot for Zilker or 78704. Compute overall MOI and then break it out by property type and price band.
• Smoothing: Use a 3‑month rolling average for small samples to reduce month-to-month swings.
• Cadence: Buyers can monitor weekly during an active search. Sellers should review in the 30 to 60 days before listing, then reassess every 7 to 14 days after going live.
• Notes: Flag any anomalies, such as a large new building release, listings still showing while pending, or recent withdrawals.

What MOI misses

MOI is powerful, but it is not the whole story.

• Off-MLS activity and FSBOs may not be counted.
• Overpriced or not market-ready homes can inflate active supply, making MOI look higher than the marketable supply.
• MOI is based on closed sales, which reflect contracts from several weeks earlier, so it can lag in fast-moving markets.
• Small-sample volatility matters in a compact neighborhood like Zilker. Always compare against multi-month trends and the broader Austin or Travis County picture.

Pair MOI with median Days on Market and sale-to-list price trends for a fuller read on pricing power.

Quick scenarios

Here are two simplified narratives that show how MOI informs strategy. These are illustrative only.

• Seller-leaning snapshot: MOI under 3 months in the sub-900k band. Sellers see faster offers at market price, sometimes multiple bids. Buyers should arrive pre-approved, move quickly on inspections, and consider escalation clauses.
• Buyer-leaning snapshot: MOI over 6 months in higher price bands. Buyers can ask for credits, longer option periods, and repairs. Sellers should focus on sharp pricing and standout presentation.

Next steps

If you want a clear, local read on Zilker’s supply and demand, start with a current MOI snapshot sliced by property type and price band. Then layer in Days on Market and recent price reductions to shape your strategy. A data-grounded plan helps you time the market, simplify decisions, and protect value.

For a hyperlocal MOI check and pricing or offer strategy tailored to your home or search, connect with Derrik Davis. Get a neighborhood-level read, development-savvy insight, and a plan you can act on.

FAQs

What is Months of Inventory in real estate?

• MOI estimates how long current active listings would take to sell at the recent sales pace if no new homes were listed; it signals the supply and demand balance.

How do I calculate MOI for Zilker?

• Pull active MLS listings for your snapshot date, count closed sales over the prior 30 days or 3-month average, then divide active by average monthly sales.

What MOI is a seller market in 78704?

• Many pros view under 3 months as seller-leaning, about 3 to 6 months as balanced, and over 6 months as buyer-leaning, depending on price band and property type.

Is MOI the same for Zilker condos and houses?

• No. Condos often show higher MOI than single-family homes in central Austin, so compare within your property type.

How often does MOI change in Zilker?

• It can shift monthly and is volatile in small areas. Use a 3-month rolling average for steadier insight, and compare against Austin or Travis County trends.

Can MOI predict price drops in 78704?

• Rising MOI can signal softer demand relative to supply and potential downward pressure, but pair it with Days on Market and price reduction trends before drawing conclusions.